On July 15, the National Bureau of Statistics announced the national economic report card for the first half of this year. According to preliminary calculations, the gross domestic product in the first half of the year was 5,32167 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.7% at comparable prices, a decrease of 5.6 percentage points from the first quarter; an average growth rate of 5.3% over the two years, and an average growth rate of 0.3% faster than that in the first quarter. percentage point. In terms of quarters, the first quarter increased by 18.3% year-on-year, and the two-year average growth was 5.0%; the second quarter increased by 7.9%, and the two-year average growth was 5.5%.

In response, Wang Jun, chief economist of Centaline Bank, said that the overall economic data in the first half of the year was in line with market expectations, and my country's economy showed a steady recovery trend. Among them, the production side and the demand side continue to improve; the "troika" of investment, consumption and exports continues to recover, especially the export performance is very strong; business expectations are improving and vigorous. In the first half of this year, my country’s economy was able to achieve such results. On the one hand, since the outbreak of the epidemic, a series of monetary and fiscal policies have been effective, which has hedged the impact of the epidemic on the economy; on the other hand, it is inseparable from various market entities Through their hard work, they have demonstrated super toughness and withstood the impact of the epidemic.

In the first half of the year, the two-year average economic growth rate has accelerated compared with the first quarter. What positive factors are driving economic growth? What are the highlights worthy of our attention?

The industrial service industry is steadily recovering, and new momentum is booming

In the first half of the year, industrial production grew steadily, and high-tech manufacturing grew rapidly. The value added of the industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide increased by 15.9% year-on-year, and the two-year average growth rate was 7.0%, 0.2% faster than the first quarter; of which, the second quarter increased by 8.9% year-on-year. In June, the value added of the industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 8.3% year-on-year, and the two-year average growth rate was 6.5%; the month-on-month increase was 0.56%.

At the same time, the development of new kinetic energy is vigorous. In the first half of the year, the value added of the high-tech manufacturing industry increased by 22.6% year-on-year, and the two-year average growth rate was 13.2%. In terms of products, the output of new energy vehicles, industrial robots, and integrated circuits increased by 205.0%, 69.8%, and 48.1% respectively year-on-year, and the two-year average growth rate exceeded 30%.

The tertiary industry continued to recover steadily. In the second quarter, the added value of the tertiary industry increased by 8.3% year-on-year, and the two-year average growth was 5.1%; the first quarter increased by 15.6% year-on-year and the two-year average growth was 4.7%. In terms of industries, in the first half of the year, the value added of the transportation, warehousing and postal industries, information transmission, software, and information technology service industries increased by 21.0% and 20.3% year-on-year respectively, and the two-year average growth rate was 6.9% and 17.3% respectively.

"Troika" is full of power, exports continue to grow strongly

In the first half of the year, market sales gradually improved, and consumer upgrading products grew rapidly. The total retail sales of consumer goods was 21,190.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.0%, an average growth rate of 4.4% in two years, 0.2 percentage points faster than the first quarter; of which, the second quarter increased by 13.9% year-on-year, and the two-year average growth rate was 4.6%. In June, the total retail sales of consumer goods was 3758.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.1%, an average increase of 4.9% in two years; an increase of 0.70% month-on-month.

Online retail, which represents new forms and models of consumption, continues to maintain rapid growth. In the first half of the year, the national online retail sales reached 6,113.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.2%, and an average growth rate of 15.0% in two years, 1.5 percentage points faster than the first quarter.

Fixed asset investment continued to recover. In the first half of the year, national investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) was 25,590 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.6%, and a month-on-month increase of 0.35% in June; the two-year average growth rate was 4.4%, 1.5 percentage points faster than the first quarter. Among the three major fixed asset investment items, infrastructure investment in the first half of the year increased by 7.8% year-on-year, and the two-year average growth rate was 2.4%, which was a slight decrease from January to May; manufacturing investment increased by 19.2% year-on-year, and the two-year average growth rate was 2.0%, compared with 1 -In May, it accelerated by 1.4 percentage points; real estate development investment increased by 15.0% year-on-year, and the two-year average growth rate was 8.2%, which was a slight decrease from January-May.

It is worth noting that the high-tech industry investment in the first half of the year increased by 23.5% year-on-year, and the two-year average growth rate was 14.6%; among them, the high-tech manufacturing industry and high-tech service industry investment increased by 29.7% and 12.0% year-on-year, and the two-year average growth rate was 17.1%. , 9.5%.

The import and export of goods grew rapidly, and the trade structure continued to be optimized. In the first half of the year, the total value of imports and exports of goods was 18,065.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.1%. Among them, exports were 9,849.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.1%; imports were 8,215.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.9%; the trade surplus was 1,633.6 billion yuan. In the first half of the year, general trade imports and exports accounted for 61.9% of total imports and exports, an increase of 1.7% over the same period last year.

Employment "basic disk" is stable, residents' income continues to grow

Employment is the biggest livelihood of the people. In the first half of the year, the employment situation was generally stable, with 6.98 million new jobs in cities and towns across the country, completing 63.5% of the annual target. In June, the nationwide surveyed unemployment rate in urban areas was 5.0%, which was the same as that in May, and was 0.7 percentage points lower than the same period last year.

The employment market is stable and residents' income is more secure. In the first half of the year, the national per capita disposable income was 17,642 yuan, a nominal year-on-year increase of 12.6%. This was mainly due to the low base in the first half of last year. The two-year average growth was 7.4%, 0.4% faster than the first quarter. Excluding price factors, the actual growth rate was 12.0% year-on-year, and the two-year average growth rate was 5.2%, which was slightly lower than the economic growth rate and basically synchronized.

The gap in the per capita disposable income of urban and rural residents has narrowed. In the first half of the year, according to permanent residence, the per capita disposable income of urban residents was 24,125 yuan, a nominal increase of 11.4% year-on-year, and a real increase of 10.7%; the per capita disposable income of rural residents was 9,248 yuan, a nominal increase of 14.6% year-on-year, and a real increase of 14.1%. From the perspective of income sources, the national per capita wage income, net operating income, net property income, and net transfer income increased by 12.1%, 17.5%, 15.0%, and 9.0% in nominal terms, respectively. The per capita income ratio of urban and rural residents was 2.61, a decrease of 0.07 compared to the same period last year. The national median per capita disposable income of residents was 14,897 yuan, an increase of 11.6%.

Editor in charge: Yuan Hao